A United Ireland Plebiscite Cannot Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Warn

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."